Distributor sales performance, as measured by our monthly Trends Report, has grown at a modest rate of 3.3 percent in the 12 months through July. Equipment sales volumes have traced a similar path in those 12 months, with distributor sales of air-conditioners and air-source heat pumps trending at a low-single-digit growth rate. Unfortunately, things have slowed in the last 3 months.

In the 3 months through July, distributor sales of air-conditioners and air-source heat pumps have declined 6 percent and 3 percent, respectively, from their 2024 levels. While these recent distributor sales trends are disappointing, they remain at a higher level than the trends we see more recently from manufacturers. Through July, manufacturer shipments of air conditioners and heat pumps are down 25 percent and 10 percent, respectively from their 2024 levels. Distributor inventory growth – up 13 percent Y/Y in July – is weighing on order volumes, and 2024 shipment comparisons will get progressively more challenging due to the strong shipment growth manufacturers experienced in the back-half of 2024.

Despite multiple challenges that have contributed to weaker product sales in 2025, the adoption of A2L refrigerants has accelerated in recent months. The chart above shows the distribution of unitary products sold through distribution, based on refrigerant type. As of July, A2L refrigerants represent the overwhelming majority of the market at 82 percent.

Distributors interested in seeing how the market unfolds in real time are encouraged to contact Grace Helser to join the Unitary Market Program. Participating distributors currently have access to the new dashboards and can see real-time sales trends like those above and in greater detail.